Opinião sobre o Irão, por Matthew Kroenig

As grandes potências mundiais chegaram esta noite a acordo com o Irão, que se comprometeu a não enriquecer urânio acima de 5% durante seis meses em troca do alívio de sanções, informou a Casa Branca.

 Em comunicado divulgado após o anúncio do acordo entre o Irão e as seis potências mundiais (membros do Conselho de Segurança da ONU mais a Alemanha), em Genebra, a Casa Branca indicou que o Irão também se comprometeu a desmantelar "os conetores técnicos" que permitem tal enriquecimento.

Com este compromisso, as potências garantem o alívio das sanções contra o Irão, avaliadas em sete mil milhões de dólares, durante os seis meses, mas se o país não cumprir por completo o acordo as sanções voltarão a entrar em vigor.

No âmbito do acordo alcançado, o Governo iraniano comprometeu-se a parar o enriquecimento de urânio até 20% e só poderá fazê-lo abaixo de 5%, apenas o suficiente para o seu uso civil, a não expandir as centrais nucleares de Fordo e Natanz e a parar a construção da central de Arak, onde se poderia produzir plutónio.

"Isto significa que os 200 quilos de urânio enriquecido a 20% [reservas que o Irão possui atualmente] serão zero em seis meses", disse o secretário de Estado norte-americano, John Kerry, em conferência de imprensa realizada em Genebra esta noite, ao explicar que essas reservas serão diluídas.

BY MATTHEW KROENIG

The interim deal is, as Secretary of State John Kerry has said, only a "first step." It is to remain in place for six months until a "comprehensive" accord can be reached. In other words, now comes the hard part. 

So, where will we be six months from now? 

There are three possible outcomes. First, the two sides might successfully negotiate a comprehensive deal that succeeds in dismantling the Iranian nuclear threat. This would be the best possible outcome, but, given the outstanding differences mentioned above, it is also the least likely.

The second possibility is that the six-month interim deal expires without an accord and the two sides agree to extend the terms of the interim deal. Over time, therefore, there is the danger that the interim deal becomes permanent. (Also in this category would be the possibility that we reach a weak "comprehensive" pact that does not go much beyond the interim arrangement). This outcome should be avoided. As long as such an arrangement is strictly enforced, it would at least prevent Iran from making the final dash to a nuclear weapon, but it would leave far too much of Iran's nuclear infrastructure in place for comfort, amount to a de facto recognition of Iran's right to enrich, and set a dangerous precedent for nonproliferation policy. Moreover, the tough sanctions regime now in place cannot hold forever, and over time the pressure on Iran to uphold its end of the bargain will dissipate.

Finally, and at least as likely as the others, is the possibility that the interim deal begins to unravel after six months, or perhaps even before, and Iran resumes its steady march toward nuclear weapons. In this event, Congress must pass the tough sanctions bill it is currently marking up and the international community must prepare to take military action. 

Because nothing in this recent flurry of diplomatic activity changes the basic fact that, as President Obama has stated many times, a nuclear-armed Iran is "unacceptable" and the United States must do "everything that's required to prevent it."

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